Prediction, assessment of the Rift Valley fever activity in East and Southern Africa 2006-2008 and possible vector control strategies.

Assaf Anyamba (1) , Kenneth J Linthicum (2) , Jennifer Small (1) , Seth C Britch (1) , Edwin Pak (1) , Stephane de La Rocque (3) , Pierre Formenty (4) , Allen W Hightower (5) , Robert F Breiman (5) , Jean-Paul Chretien (6) , Compton J Tucker (1) , David Schnabel (7) , Rosemary Sang (8) , Karl Haagsma (9) , Mark Latham (10) , Henry B Lewandowski (11) , Salih Osman Magdi (12) , Mohamed Ally Mohamed (13) , Patrick M Nguku (14) , Jean-Marc Reynes (15) , Robert Swanepoel (16)

1 GSFC - NASA Goddard Space Flight Center
2 USDA-ARS Center for Medical, Agricultural and Veterinary Entomology
3 AGAH - EMPRES/Animal Production and Health Division
4 HSE/GAR - Global Alert and Response Department
5 KEMRI-CDC - Kenya Medical Research Unit
6 Division of Preventive Medicine
7 United States Army Medical Research Unit-Kenya
8 KEMRI - Kenya Medical Research Institute
9 757th Airlift Squadron
10 Manatee County Mosquito Control
11 Chatham County Mosquito Control
12 Federal Ministry of Health
13 Ministry of Health and Social Welfare
14 Division of Communicable Disease Control
15 Institut Pasteur de Madagascar
16 NICD - National Institute for Communicable Diseases [Johannesburg]

Historical outbreaks of Rift Valley fever (RVF) since the early 1950s have been associated with cyclical patterns of the El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) phenomenon, which results in elevated and widespread rainfall over the RVF endemic areas of Africa. Using satellite measurements of global and regional elevated sea surface temperatures, elevated rainfall, and satellite derived-normalized difference vegetation index data, we predicted with lead times of 2-4 months areas where outbreaks of RVF in humans and animals were expected and occurred in the Horn of Africa, Sudan, and Southern Africa at different time periods from September 2006 to March 2008. Predictions were confirmed by entomological field investigations of virus activity and by reported cases of RVF in human and livestock populations. This represents the first series of prospective predictions of RVF outbreaks and provides a baseline for improved early warning, control, response planning, and mitigation into the future.

Domains: Microbiology and Parasitology

Assaf Anyamba, Kenneth J Linthicum, Jennifer Small, Seth C Britch, Edwin Pak, et al.. Prediction, assessment of the Rift Valley fever activity in East and Southern Africa 2006-2008 and possible vector control strategies.. American Journal of Tropical Medicine and Hygiene, 2010, 83 (2 Suppl), pp.43-51. ⟨10.4269/ajtmh.2010.09-0289⟩. ⟨pasteur-00595489⟩