B. Ismail, R. Gradoni, L. Gramiccia, M. Bettini, S. et al., Epidemic cutaneous leishmaniasis in Tunisia: biochemical characterization of parasites, Transactions of the Royal Society of Tropical Medicine and Hygiene, vol.80, issue.4, pp.669-670, 1986.
DOI : 10.1016/0035-9203(86)90175-6

R. Killick-kendrick, The biology and control of Phlebotomine sand flies, Clinics in Dermatology, vol.17, issue.3, pp.279-289, 1999.
DOI : 10.1016/S0738-081X(99)00046-2

B. Salah, A. Zakraoui, H. Zaatour, A. Ftaiti, A. Zaafouri et al., A randomized, placebo-controlled trial in Tunisia treating cutaneous leishmaniasis with paromomycin ointment, Am J Trop Med Hyg, vol.53, pp.162-166, 1995.

L. Mbarki, B. Salah, A. Chlif, S. Chahed, M. Balma et al., Monitoring Zoonotic Cutaneous Leishmaniasis (leishmania major) with GIS, GIS for Health and the Environment, 1995.

J. Lothian and M. M. , A Test for the Presence of Identifiable Seasonality when using the X-11 Program, Statistique Canada Document de recherche nu 78-10-002E, Seasonal Adjustment and Time Series Staff, 1978.

E. Dagum, The X11ARIMA/88 Seasonal Adjustment Method. Foundations and User's Manual, Time Series Research and Analysis Division Rapport technique de Statistique Canada, 1988.

H. Robert and S. David, Time series analysis and its application, 2000.

D. Findley, C. Brian, R. William, C. Mark, and C. Bor-chung, New Capabilities of the X-12-ARIMA Seasonal Adjustment Program (with Discussion), Journal of Business and Economic Statistics, vol.16, pp.127-177, 1998.

J. Shiskin, H. Allan, and C. John, The X-11 Variant of the Census Method II Seasonal Adjustment, 1967.

. Wood, GAMs and Generalized Ridge Regression for R, R News, vol.1, pp.20-25, 2001.

K. Liang and S. Zeger, Longitudinal data analysis using generalized linear models, Biometrika, vol.73, issue.1, pp.13-22, 1986.
DOI : 10.1093/biomet/73.1.13

A. Wa, GAMs with integrated model selection using penalized regression splines and applications to environmental modelling, Ecological Modelling, vol.157, pp.157-177, 2002.

R. Development and C. Team, R: A language and environment for statistical computing. R Foundation for Statistical Computing, V., Austria, 2009.

V. Muggeo, Segmented: an R package to fit regression models with broken-line relationships, Rnews, vol.8, pp.20-25, 2008.

P. Diggle, K. Liang, and S. Zeger, Analysis of Longitudinal Data., Biometrics, vol.53, issue.2, 1994.
DOI : 10.2307/2533983

D. Rogers, S. Randolph, R. Snow, and S. Hay, Satellite imagery in the study and forecast of malaria, Nature, vol.415, issue.6872, pp.710-715, 2002.
DOI : 10.1038/415710a

G. Zhou, N. Minakawa, A. Githeko, and G. Yan, Climate variability and malaria epidemics in the highlands of East Africa, Trends in Parasitology, vol.21, issue.2, pp.54-56, 2005.
DOI : 10.1016/j.pt.2004.11.002

D. Xiao, Y. Long, S. Wang, L. Fang, and D. Xu, Spatiotemporal distribution of malaria and the association between its epidemic and climate factors in Hainan, China, Malaria Journal, vol.9, issue.1, p.185, 2010.
DOI : 10.1186/1475-2875-9-185

B. Cazelles, M. Chavez, A. Mcmichael, and S. Hales, Nonstationary Influence of El Ni??o on the Synchronous Dengue Epidemics in Thailand, PLoS Medicine, vol.4, issue.4, p.106, 2005.
DOI : 10.1371/journal.pmed.0020106.sg004

M. Johansson, D. Cummings, and G. Glass, Multiyear Climate Variability and Dengue???El Ni??o Southern Oscillation, Weather, and Dengue Incidence in Puerto Rico, Mexico, and Thailand: A Longitudinal Data Analysis, PLoS Medicine, vol.414, issue.11, p.1000168, 2009.
DOI : 10.1371/journal.pmed.1000168.s006

C. Shang, C. Fang, C. Liu, T. Wen, and K. Tsai, The Role of Imported Cases and Favorable Meteorological Conditions in the Onset of Dengue Epidemics, PLoS Neglected Tropical Diseases, vol.371, issue.8, p.775, 2010.
DOI : 10.1371/journal.pntd.0000775.s002

E. Cross and K. Hyams, The potential effect of global warming on the geographic and seasonal distribution of Phlebotomus papatasi in southwest Asia, Environmental Health Perspectives, vol.104, issue.7, pp.724-727, 1996.
DOI : 10.1289/ehp.96104724

R. Kovats, D. Campbell-lendrum, A. Mcmichael, A. Woodward, and J. Cox, Early effects of climate change: do they include changes in vector-borne disease?, Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society B: Biological Sciences, vol.356, issue.1411, pp.1057-1068, 2001.
DOI : 10.1098/rstb.2001.0894

M. Afonso, L. Campino, S. Cortes, and C. Alves-pires, Parrot, 1917 in the Arrabida leishmaniasis focus, Parasite, vol.12, issue.1, pp.69-72, 2005.
DOI : 10.1051/parasite/2005121069

L. Chamaille, A. Tran, A. Meunier, G. Bourdoiseau, and P. Ready, Environmental risk mapping of canine leishmaniasis in France, Parasites & Vectors, vol.3, issue.1, p.31, 2010.
DOI : 10.1186/1756-3305-3-31

C. Gonzalez, O. Wang, S. Strutz, C. Gonzalez-salazar, and V. Sanchez-cordero, Climate Change and Risk of Leishmaniasis in North America: Predictions from Ecological Niche Models of Vector and Reservoir Species, PLoS Neglected Tropical Diseases, vol.85, issue.3, p.585, 2010.
DOI : 10.1371/journal.pntd.0000585.s004

L. Chaves and M. Pascual, Climate Cycles and Forecasts of Cutaneous Leishmaniasis, a Nonstationary Vector-Borne Disease, PLoS Medicine, vol.54, issue.8, p.295, 2006.
DOI : 10.1371/journal.pmed.0030295.sd001

C. Franke, M. Ziller, C. Staubach, and M. Latif, Impact of El Ni??o/Southern Oscillation on Visceral Leishmaniasis, Brazil, Emerging Infectious Diseases, vol.8, issue.9, pp.914-917, 2002.
DOI : 10.3201/eid0809.010523

R. Cardenas, C. Sandoval, A. Rodriguez-morales, and C. Franco-paredes, Impact of climate variability in the occurrence of leishmaniasis in northeastern Colombia, Am J Trop Med Hyg, vol.75, pp.273-277, 2006.

K. Ben-ahmed, K. Aoun, F. Jeddi, J. Ghrab, and M. El-aroui, Visceral leishmaniasis in Tunisia: spatial distribution and association with climatic factors, Am J Trop Med Hyg, vol.81, pp.40-45, 2009.
URL : https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/pasteur-00859428

A. Salah, B. Ismail, R. Amri, F. Chlif, S. et al., Investigation of the spread of human visceral leishmaniasis in central Tunisia, Transactions of the Royal Society of Tropical Medicine and Hygiene, vol.94, issue.4, pp.382-386, 2000.
DOI : 10.1016/S0035-9203(00)90112-3

A. Salah, Y. Kamarianakis, S. Chlif, N. Alaya, and P. Prastacos, Zoonotic cutaneous leishmaniasis in central Tunisia: spatio temporal dynamics, International Journal of Epidemiology, vol.36, issue.5, 2007.
DOI : 10.1093/ije/dym125
URL : https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/pasteur-00871665

M. Rhajaoui, A. Nasereddin, H. Fellah, K. Azmi, and F. Amarir, New Clinicoepidemiologic Profile of Cutaneous Leishmaniasis, Morocco, Emerging Infectious Diseases, vol.13, issue.9, pp.1358-1360, 2007.
DOI : 10.3201/eid1309.060946

S. Razmjou, H. Hejazy, M. Motazedian, M. Baghaei, and M. Emamy, A new focus of zoonotic cutaneous leishmaniasis in Shiraz, Iran, Transactions of the Royal Society of Tropical Medicine and Hygiene, vol.103, issue.7, pp.727-730, 2009.
DOI : 10.1016/j.trstmh.2008.12.013

S. Khoury, E. Saliba, O. Oumeish, and M. Tawfig, EPIDEMIOLOGY OF CUTANEOUS LEISHMANIASIS IN JORDAN: 1983?1992, International Journal of Dermatology, vol.9, issue.8, pp.566-569, 1996.
DOI : 10.1016/0001-706X(93)90070-R

A. Mary, R. Sima, R. Marcelo, and B. Afif, Leishmaniasis: Middle East and North Africa Research and Development Priorities, PLoS Neglected Tropical Diseases, vol.5, p.1219, 2011.

R. Anderson and R. May, Infectious diseases of humans : dynamics and control. Oxford, 1991.

B. Ismail and R. , Rapport de fonctionnement. Laboratoire d'Epidemiologie et d'Ecologie Parasitaire, Arch Inst Pasteur Tunis, vol.71, pp.86-107, 1994.

B. Ismail, R. , B. Rachid, M. Gradoni, L. Gramiccia et al., La leishmaniose cutanée zoonotique en Tunisie. Etude du réservoir dans le foyer de Douara, Ann Soc Belg Med Trop, vol.67, pp.335-343, 1987.

B. Ismail, R. , B. Rachid, and M. , Epidémiologie des leishmanioses en Tunisie. Maladies tropicales transmissibles Ed AUPELF-UREE John Libbey Eurotext Paris, pp.73-80, 1989.

W. Ghawar, A. Toumi, M. Snoussi, S. Chlif, and A. Zaatour, : Reservoirs of Zoonotic Cutaneous Leishmaniasis in Sidi Bouzid (Central Tunisia), Vector-Borne and Zoonotic Diseases, vol.11, issue.12, pp.1561-1568, 2011.
DOI : 10.1089/vbz.2011.0712

G. Muller, V. Kravchenko, and Y. Schlein, Seasonal and spatial changes of sand fly species in a canyon in the Carmel Mountains, Journal of Vector Ecology, vol.41, issue.Supplement, pp.118-127, 2011.
DOI : 10.1111/j.1948-7134.2011.00120.x

R. Srinivasan, K. Panicker, and V. Dhanda, Population dynamics of Phlebotomus papatasi (Diptera:Phlebotomidae) in Pondicherry, India, Acta Tropica, vol.54, issue.2, pp.125-130, 1993.
DOI : 10.1016/0001-706X(93)90058-J

T. Valevich and T. Dergacheva, The laboratory cultivation of Phlebotomus papatasi. The nature of the reaction of the sandflies to unfavorable environmental conditions, Med Parazitol, pp.18-21, 1992.

E. Fichet-calvet, I. Jomaa, B. Ismail, R. Ashford, and R. , in Tunisia: interaction of host and parasite populations, Annals of Tropical Medicine & Parasitology, vol.44, issue.6, pp.593-603, 2003.
DOI : 10.1016/0035-9203(84)90179-2

R. Barata, G. Paz, M. Bastos, R. Andrade, and D. Barros, Phlebotomine sandflies (Diptera: Psychodidae) in Governador Valadares, a transmission area for American tegumentary leishmaniasis in State of Minas Gerais, Brazil, Revista da Sociedade Brasileira de Medicina Tropical, vol.44, issue.2, pp.136-139, 2011.
DOI : 10.1590/S0037-86822011005000003

Y. Ozbel, I. Balcioglu, M. Olgen, F. Simsek, and S. Toz, Spatial distribution of phlebotomine sand flies in the Aydin Mountains and surroundings: the main focus of cutaneous leishmaniasis in western Turkey, Journal of Vector Ecology, vol.8, issue.Suppl. 1, pp.99-105, 2011.
DOI : 10.1111/j.1948-7134.2011.00118.x