Penn State System (Pennsylvania, PA, USA, Etats-Unis - United States)
Abstract : Madagascar reports few measles cases annually and high vaccination campaign coverage. However, the underlying age profile of immunity and risk of a measles outbreak is unknown. We conducted a nested serological survey, testing 1,005 serum samples (collected between November 2013 and December 2015 via Madagascar's febrile rash surveillance system) for measles immunoglobulin G antibody titers. We directly estimated the age profile of immunity and compared these estimates with indirect estimates based on a birth cohort model of vaccination coverage and natural infection. Combining these estimates of the age profile of immunity in the population with an age-structured model of transmission, we further predicted the risk of a measles outbreak and the impact of mitigation strategies designed around supplementary immunization activities. The direct and indirect estimates of age-specific seroprevalence show that current measles susceptibility is over 10%, and modeling suggests that Madagascar may be at risk of a major measles epidemic.
https://hal-riip.archives-ouvertes.fr/pasteur-01920183 Contributor : Floran BidaultConnect in order to contact the contributor Submitted on : Wednesday, November 21, 2018 - 3:07:52 PM Last modification on : Thursday, April 7, 2022 - 10:10:35 AM Long-term archiving on: : Friday, February 22, 2019 - 2:31:15 PM