 |
Journal articles
Revealing Measles Outbreak Risk With a Nested Immunoglobulin G Serosurvey in Madagascar
Abstract : Madagascar reports few measles cases annually and high vaccination campaign coverage. However, the underlying age profile of immunity and risk of a measles outbreak is unknown. We conducted a nested serological survey, testing 1,005 serum samples (collected between November 2013 and December 2015 via Madagascar's febrile rash surveillance system) for measles immunoglobulin G antibody titers. We directly estimated the age profile of immunity and compared these estimates with indirect estimates based on a birth cohort model of vaccination coverage and natural infection. Combining these estimates of the age profile of immunity in the population with an age-structured model of transmission, we further predicted the risk of a measles outbreak and the impact of mitigation strategies designed around supplementary immunization activities. The direct and indirect estimates of age-specific seroprevalence show that current measles susceptibility is over 10%, and modeling suggests that Madagascar may be at risk of a major measles epidemic.
Cited literature [48 references]
https://hal-riip.archives-ouvertes.fr/pasteur-01920183
Contributor : Floran Bidault Connect in order to contact the contributor
Submitted on : Wednesday, November 21, 2018 - 3:07:52 PM
Last modification on : Wednesday, November 3, 2021 - 9:31:50 AM
Long-term archiving on: : Friday, February 22, 2019 - 2:31:15 PM
Contributor : Floran Bidault Connect in order to contact the contributor
Submitted on : Wednesday, November 21, 2018 - 3:07:52 PM
Last modification on : Wednesday, November 3, 2021 - 9:31:50 AM
Long-term archiving on: : Friday, February 22, 2019 - 2:31:15 PM
File
kwy114.pdf
Publication funded by an institution
Licence
Distributed under a Creative Commons Attribution - NonCommercial - ShareAlike 4.0 International License